Weekly Forex Outlook for October 24-28

Here is an outlook of the main news items and reports that could affect the forex markets for the week of October 24th to October 28th related to the U.S., Canada, Japan and Europe.   

(all times GMT):

  1. Monday October 24th 09:00 – Euro Area Manufacturing PMI: In the last report regarding August 2011, the Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI remained below the 50 point mark and reached 48.4. This report will provide an indicator to the economic growth of the Euro zone economy and could influence the Euro/USD exchange rate;
  2. Monday October 24th 23:00 – ECB President Trichet Speaks: Jean Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, will probably refer to the recent EU Summit regarding the debt crisis in Europe. This speech may affect the Euros to US dollar exchange rate;
  3. Tuesday October 25th 09:30 – Great Britain Current Account: this report will show the changes in balance of current account (see here previous report);
  4. Tuesday October 25th 13:30 – Canada’s Core Retails Sales: This report may affect the USD/CAD exchange rate. In the last report for July, retails sales fell by 0.6% to $37.5 billion; in volume terms the sales shrunk during the month by 0.9% (see here the full report);
  5. Tuesday October 25th 14:00 – S&P Change in Home Prices this is a index presents the month to month changes in the U.S. residential housing prices (see here for the previous reports);
  6. Tuesday October 25th 14:00 – Canada Overnight Rate: The Bank of Canada will publish its decision regarding the overnight interest rate, which remained unchanged at 1% as of last month. The BOC may continue its policy of keeping the interest rate unchanged, despite the increase in inflation rate to 3.2% (in annul terms). This decision may influence the CAD/USD.;
  7. Tuesday October 25th 15:00 – U.S Consumer Confidence: in the previous report, the consumer confidence index remained nearly unchanged in September (M-2-M). The current expectations are that this index may continue to fall in October;
  8. Wednesday October 26th All day – Euro Summit: Following the summit meeting on Sunday, this summit will continue for the second day as France and Germany will try to reach an agreement about the actions needed to take and the Greek debt;
  9. Wednesday October 26th tentative –Rate Decision of BOJ: This statement will present Bank of Japan’s rate decision and other monetary related decisions. In the last statement the bank left the interest rate at 0 to 0.1 percent. The upcoming statement could offer some insight to the economic outlook of Japan and the next steps the BOJ may take to help the Japanese economy rising;
  10. Wednesday October 26th 13:30 –U.S. Core Durable Goods Report: This monthly report will show the changes in orders of durable goods in the U.S. in the manufacturing sector during September. During August, manufactured durable goods fell by $0.2 billion or 0.1% to $201.8 billion (for the full report);
  11. Wednesday October 26th 15:00 – U.S. New Home Sales: This report will present the changes in the real estate market during September 2011 and the new home sales in the U.S.; in the recent report (August 2011), the sales of new homes reached an annual rate of 295,000 – a decrease of 2.3%; if this downward trend will keep on, it may only further indicate a slowdown in the U.S real estate market;
  12. Thursday October 27th 09:00 – M1 and M3 of Euro Zone: This report will show the changes in the M3, M1 and private sector loans in the Euro Area during September. In the previous August 2011 report, the annual growth rate for M3 sharply inclined to 2.8%. If the M1 and M3 will continue to incline it could serve as another indicator of an expected rise in Euro Area CPI and  may influence ECB’s rate decision (see here the last report);
  13. Thursday October 27th 13:30 –U.S. Unemployment Claims: initial claims declined by 6,000 to 403,000 claims for the week ending on October 15th; the number of insured unemployment reached 3.719 million, an increase of 25,000 during the week of October 8th; this report could affect forex traders;
  14. Thursday October 27th 13:30 – Advanced U.S. GDP 3Q 2011: This will be the first estimate of the third quarter 2011 real GDP of U.S. In the 2Q2011 the GDP growth rate was 1.3%, compared with 0.4% increase at 1Q2011. This shows a very low growth rate for the US’s GDP and a slow down in the economic activity in the US compared to 2010 (for the final estimate of 2Q GDP).
  15. Thursday October 27th 15:00 – U.S. Pending Home Sales: This report shows the major changes in pending home sales in the U.S. for September 2011; in August there was drop in the pending home sales index by 1.2%;
  16. Friday October 28th 13:30 – U.S. Employment Cost Index: This report will show the changes in the compensation costs for civilian workers during the past three months (see here the last report);
  17.  Friday October 28th 13:30 – U.S. Personal Income: This report will present the monthly changes in the personal spending and income in September (see here the recent report);

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