Weekly Forex Outlook for September 19-23

Following the comeback of the Euro against the US dollar during last week, the upcoming week will bring new events that could influence forex traders including the FOMC meeting, the German ZEW economic sentiment, and U.S. Building Permits report. Here is a forex outlook for the week of September 19th to September 23rd:    

(all times GMT):

  1. Monday September 19th 2:30 – Australia’s Monetary Policy meeting: The minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the reserve bank of Australia will be published; it shows the main factors that affected the board’s decisions on the Bank’s basic interest rate which is at 4.75%; this decision might affect the Australian dollar (see here last rate decision);
  2. Tuesday September 20th 10:00 – Euro-zone and German ZEW sentiment: The upcoming publication will refer to the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment for Germany and Euro zone for August 2011. During August 2011 the ZEW indicator for Germany declined by 22.5 points;
  3. Tuesday September 20th 13:30 – U.S. Building Permits & Housing Starts: The recent report showed an improvement as the adjusted annual rate reached 597,000 building permits in July 2011, which is 3.2% below June’s rate. The US housing starts adjusted annual rate reached 604,000 in July 2011 –1.5% below June’s rate. If this report will continue to show a decline, it will indicate an ongoing slowdown US housing market;
  4. Tuesday September 20th 00:50 – Japanese Trade Balance: The Japanese trade balance deficit for July 2011 sharply decreased by 33.6% compared with June 2011, to reach 130.500 billion YEN (roughly $1.69 billion) deficit (seasonally adjusted figures). This sharp decrease is mainly due to the increase in exports and the slight drop in imports;
  5. Wednesday September 21st 13:00 – Canadian Core CPI: This report will refer to the core CPI changes in August 2011. According to the recent Canadian statistics report for July 2011, the CPI inclined by 2.7% in 12 month up to July – this is a lower rate than in June, in which there was a 3.1% growth rate in 12 months; the core CPI excluding food and energy grew by only 1.2% from July 2010 to July 2011 – lower than the 1.4% increase during the 12 months up to June (annual rate);
  6. Wednesday September 21st 15:00 – U.S. existing home sales: in the recent report for July there was a decline in number of homes sold: the seasonally adjusted annual rate reached 4.67 million home sales  a 3.5% decrease (M-2-M) (see here the recent review);
  7. Wednesday September 21st 19:15 – FOMC meeting: in the last rate decision in August, the Fed announced it will keep interest rates low at least until mid-2013. In the upcoming meeting the Federal Open Market Committee will continue its deliberations of the Fed’s next move. In particular, will there be another quantitative easing plan. Many speculate that the Fed won’t issue another plan;
  8. Thursday September 22nd 09:00 – Euro Zone Manufacturing PMI: In the last report, the Euro Zone ManufacturingPMI declined below the 50 point mark for the first time in nearly two years to reach 49.0 in August 2011. This report will provide an indicator to the economic growth of the Euro zone economy and could affect the Euro/USD;
  9. Thursday September 22nd 13:30 – Canada Core Retails Sales: In the previous June 2011 report, retails sales rose by 0.7% to $37.8 billion; in volume terms the sales grew during the month by 1.6%; this news item will reflect the economic growth in  Canada and could affect its currency;
  10. Thursday September 22nd 13:30 U.S. Unemployment Claims: For the week ending on September 10th, initial claims rose by 11,000 to 428,000 claims; this news might affect trading of USD;
  11. Friday September 23rd 19:00 – ECB conference Trichet speaks:  following the recent announcement of the ECB along with other central banks, Trichet  will give a speech regarding the economic stability of the Europe, the recent depreciation of the Euro and the ongoing debt crisis in the Euro Area;
  12. Friday-Sunday September 23-25 – World Bank and IMF Meeting: The upcoming meeting of the IMF and World Bank will continue to address the financial crisis in Europe and the global economic slowdown.

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