Weekly Forex Outlook for October 17-21

Here is an outlook of the main news items and reports that could affect the forex markets for the week of October 17th to October 21st related to the U.S., Canada, China, Germany and Australia.   

(all times GMT):

  1. Monday October 17th 2:30 – Monetary Policy Meeting Australia’s Bank: The minutes of the monetary policy meeting of the reserve bank of Australia shows the main factors that influenced the board’s decisions on the Bank’s basic interest rate which is at 4.75%; this decision might also affect the AUD/USD exchange rate and consequently the prices of major commodities including crude oil and gold (see here last rate decision);
  2. Monday October 17th 03:00 –China Third quarter GDP: during the second quarter of 2011, China grew by 9.5% in annual terms; the current expectations are that the Q3 2011 grew in annul terms by 9.2%; this slowdown is probably due to the recent raises in the interest rate and loans restrictions by the People Bank of China;
  3. Tuesday October 18th 09:30 – Great Britain CPI: This monthly report will show the progress in the CPI in GB during September, i.e. the inflation rate;
  4. Tuesday October 18th 10:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment;
  5. Tuesday October 18th 13:30 – U.S. PPI: This monthly report will show the progress in the PPI during September, i.e. the inflation rate from producers’ stand point. In the previous report regarding August, this index for finished goods remained flat, after an increase in 0.2% in July;
  6. Tuesday 18th of October 14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term: The Treasury International Capital report will present the main changes in the purchases and sales of US long term treasuries in August 2011. In the last report for July, the net foreign holdings in US Treasuries longer-term notes rose by $9.5 billion (see here my last review of July 2011).
  7. Tuesday 18th of October 18:15 – Bernanke Speech: following last month’s announcement of FOMC plan to purchase LT securities and to sell ST securities to conclude by June 2012, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve is likely to address the economic outlook of the FOMC and his speech may affect forex traders if he will hint of another stimulus plan in the future;
  8. Wednesday October 19th 10:00 –Euro Area Balance of Payments for August 2011 (see here the recent report);
  9. Wednesday October 19th 13:30 –U.S CPI: This report will show the changes in the CPI in September. According to the US Bureau of Labor statistics for August 2011, the CPI inclined by 0.4% and over the last 12 months by 3.8%. The core CPI inclined in August by 0.2%;
  10. Wednesday October 19th 13:30 – U.S. Building Permits & Housing Starts: The recent report showed an improvement as the adjusted annual rate rose by 3.2% in August, while the housing starts fell short. If this report will continue to show an increase, it may indicate that the US housing market may change direction (see here the recent review);
  11. Thursday October 20th 13:30 – U.S. Unemployment Claims: initial claims slipped by 1,000 to 404,000 claims for the week ending on October 8th; the number of insured unemployment reached 3.724 million, a decrease of 21,500 during the week of October 1st; this report may influence forex traders;
  12. Thursday October 20th 15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will show the major changes in U.S. existing home sales during September 2011; in the recent report related to August the number of homes sold inclined in August: the seasonally adjusted annual rate increased by 7.7% to 5.03 million home sales  (see here the recent review);
  13. Thursday October 20th 15.00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey provides an indicator for the economic progress of the US economy as it measures the manufacturing conditions of the US. In the last September survey, the index still showed weakness but was better than in the previous month. The index inclined from -30.7 in August to -17.5 in September. This index, may have been among the factors to affect the direction of major currencies (see here last report)  ;
  14. Friday October 21st 08:40 –Trichet Speaks: Jean Claude Trichet, President of the European Central Bank, will talk about the challenges Euro Area is facing vis-à-vis the debt crisis. This speech may affect the Euro to US dollar exchange rate;
  15. Friday 21st of October 09:00 – German Business Climate Survey: This survey estimates the changes in the business climate in Germany on a monthly basis. In the last report regarding September 2011, the business climate index declined again; this survey may affect forex and commodities traders;
  16. Friday 21st of October 13:00 – Canadian Core CPI: This report will refer to the core consumer price index changes during September 2011 that controls the volatile components such as energy, fruit and vegetables. According to the recent Canadian statistics report for August 2011, the CPI rose by 3.1% during the past 12 month up to August. This news could affect the CAD.

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