Weekly Outlook for October 10-14

The second week of October will continues to dwell over any new developments over the European debt crisis. Here is an outlook of the main news items and reports that could affect the forex markets for the week of October 10th to October 14th related to U.S., Canada, China, Euro Area and Australia.   

(all times GMT):

  1. Tuesday 11th of October 08:30 – Trichet Speaks: Following last week’s ECB rate decision in which, despite expectations Jean Claude Trichet, President of the ECB, announced the rate will remain unchanged at 1.5%, will talk about the ongoing economic turmoil in the Europe. This speech might affect the direction of the Euros to USD exchange rate, as well as other currencies;
  2. Tuesday 11th of October 13:15 – Candia’s Housing Starts: In the last August report, the seasonally adjusted housing starts reached 184,700 units, which is lower than the 204,500 units started during July 2011. This report indicates not only the progress of the Canadian real estate market, but also of the Canadian economy; if the upcoming report will show growth, it may further strengthen the Canadian dollar (see here last report).
  3. Wednesday 12th of October 19:30 – FOMC Minutes: Following the recent FOMC meeting, in which it was decided to keep the interest rates low and the Fed’s plan to purchase LT securities in exchange of ST securities, the minutes might bring some insight regarding this decision, and the stands of the members in regards to future plans of the FOMC (see here FOMC decision);
  4. Wednesday 12th of October 19:30 – ECB Press Conference:  As the ECB is about to step down these will be among his last speeches as ECB President;
  5. Wednesday 12th of October 2:30 – Australia’s Unemployment Rate: in the recent report regarding August 2011 the rate of unemployment slightly inclined to 5.3%; the number of unemployed rose by 18,400 people; the number of employed slightly fell by 9,700 during August compared with July’s figures. If this trend ill continue to could further affect the Australian dollar (see here the recent report);
  6. Thursday 13th of October 13:30 – U.S. Unemployment Claims: Following the recent U.S. labor report, for the week ending on September 30th, initial claims inclined by 6,000 to 401,000 claims; fin the precious week the number of insured unemployment was 3,700 thousand, a drop of 52 thousand  (w-o-w); this report could affect forex traders;
  7. Thursday 14th of October 13:30 –Canada Trade Balance Report: In the August report regarding July 2011, imports edged up and exports inclined during the month: exports increased by 2.2%, and imports slightly rose by 0.5%; as a result, the trade deficit narrowed from $1.4 billion in June to $0.75 billion in July;
  8. Thursday 13th of October 13:30 –U.S. Trade Balance Report: This report will present changes in exports and imports of goods and services to and from the U.S, in August; The American trade balance report for July 2011 showed the goods deficit decreased by $6.4 billion compared with June 2011 and reached $60.6 billion; the service surplus rose by $0.4 billion to $15.8 billion; as a result, the goods and services deficit decreased during the month by $6.8 billion to $44.8 billion;
  9. Thursday 13th of October 3:00 – Chinese Consumer Price Index: in August, the Chinese inflation rate slightly slipped compared with July’s CPI and reached an yearly rate of 6.2% (it was 6.5% in July); this figure is still above the China’s inflation target of 4% in annual terms. It could induce the People Bank of China’s attempts to curb the inflation pressures are starting to work;
  10. Friday 14th of October 10:00 – Euro Area Consumer Price Index: In the last report for August, the yearly inflation rate was 2.5%, but the flash report for September showed an increase in CPI to 3%, which could be among the key factors that affect the recent ECB decision to leave the rate unchanged;
  11. Friday 14th of October tentative  – Federal Budget Balance: this upcoming publication will show the changes in the U.S federal balance in September; this report indicates the government debt growth and thus may affect the USD. In the previous report, the U.S’s deficit reached in August $134 billion –  nearly $4.8 billion increase from the $129 billion deficit recorded in July 2011(See here a summary of the recent report);
  12. Friday 14th of October 15:30 – Changes in U.S. Retail Sales: this report shows the monthly changes in the retail sales and food services; in last month’s report regarding August, the retail sales, when controlling for the price changes, slightly rose by 0.5% from the previous month; gasoline stations sales rose by 0.3% in August compared with July 2011, and were 20.8% above sales in August 2010; this report could indicate the changes in U.S demand for gasoline (see here my review of the recent report).
  13. Friday and Saturday 14th and 15th of October 19:00 –G20 Meeting: in this meeting the financial ministers of the G20 countries will discuss the current European debt crisis and the global economic slowdown.

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