Euro/USD Daily Outlook –February 9

The Euro remained flat yesterday against the USD. On the other hand many other currencies such as AUD and CAD moderately depreciated   against the USD. There are many financial events and publications on today’s agenda including ECB rate decision, US unemployment claims and BOE interest rate.

Here is a short outlook for the Euro /USD exchange rate including the main news items and events that may affect forex trading for February 9th:

Forex Market February Update:

The Euro to US Dollar remained unchanged yesterday at 1.3260; during February, the EUROS/USD increased by 1.35%. The Australian Dollar and CAD slightly depreciated against the USD; the Yen also slightly depreciated against the USD.

The chart below shows the development of the Euro to US Dollar during January and February.

Chart Euro to us dollar Exchange Rates  9 February

Correlations among Exchange Rates –up to February 9th

The chart below shows the correlations among several leading exchange rates to the Euro/USD (daily percent changes) during past months (up to February 8th).

The chart shows that the strongest relation during February (up to date, but not significant due to small sample size) is Euro/USD with Australian dollar to USD with a 0.85. This might suggest a shift in the direction of the Euro/USD could determine the direction in AUD/USD.

Correlations Euro to us dollar and other forex rates 2011-2012 February 9

Current Forex Indexes February 9th 

Euro to US Dollar is traded at 1.3293 a 0.2462% increase as of 08:29*.

GBP to USD rate is at 1.5841 a 0.1454% increase as of 08:29*.

(* GMT)

Forex and Commodities News for the Day

U.S. Jobless Claims: initial jobless claims declined by 12,000 for the week ending on January 28th; the number of insured unemployment fell by 43k during the week of January 21st; the upcoming weekly update could influence the direction of the USD;

Euro Rate Decision: In last month’s rate decision the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi kept the rate unchanged at 1%; If ECB will reduce the Euro interest rate, this decision could trade down the Euro against the US dollar;

Great Britain Bank Rate: Bank of England will decide its basic rate for February 2012 and the progress of its asset purchase plan; as of January the BOE’s rate unchanged at 0.5%;

Great Britain Manufacturing Production: this monthly report will present the monthly changes in the British manufacturing production for December; in the previous report regarding November  the index had declined; if this trend will continue it might affect GBP trading;

EIA U.S. Natural Gas Weekly Report: this weekly report of the EIA on U.S. natural gas market will present the recent developments for the week ending on February 3rd on natural gas production, storage and consumption (see here the recent review on the natural gas market);

China’s Trade Balance: China’s trade surplus reached a surplus of $16.5 billion last month;

Euro to USD Daily Outlook

There are many news items and decisions to be made today that could influence the direction of Euro/USD. The developments in the negotiations regarding Greece’s bailout plan might continue affecting the markets. The ECB rate decision might trade down the Euro if there will be rate cut (current speculations are nearly 50/50); the US unemployment claims might also affect the strength of the US dollar.

For further reading:

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *