Euro/USD Daily Outlook –February 17

The Euro changed direction and after it had declined against the USD for four consecutive days, it finished Thursday’s trading slightly rising; currently the Euro/USD is traded slightly up.

Today, U.S. CPI will come out along with the Canadian CPI.        

Here is a short outlook for the Euro /USD exchange rate including the main news items and events that may affect forex trading for February 17th:

Forex Market February Update:

The Euro to US Dollar bounced back and rose by 0.49% on Thursday to 1.3130; during February, the EUROS/USD increased by 0.36%. The Canadian Dollar slightly appreciated against the USD; the AUD also appreciated against the USD. On the other hand the Yen depreciated against the USD.

The chart below presents the development of the Euro to US Dollar during 2012 (UTD).

Chart Euro to us dollar Exchange Rates  17  FebruaryCorrelations among Exchange Rates –February 17th

The chart below shows the linear correlation (moving correlation) between the Canadian dollar and the Euro/U.S dollar (daily percent changes) during recent months (up to February 16th).

Correlations Euro to us dollar and CAD USD  2011-2012 February 17

The chart demonstrates the relation between the two exchange rates has weakened in recent weeks even though it is still very strong. The current correlation between the two daily percent changes of these currencies is nearly -0.60 for February. This might suggest the influence (if at all) of the Euro/USD on the direction of the USD/CAD is still strong.

Current Forex Indexes February 17th

Euro to US Dollar is traded at 1.3181 a 0.39% increase as of 14:13*.

GBP to USD rate is at 1.5819 a 0.11% increase as of 14:13*.

(* GMT)

Forex and Commodities News for the Day

Canada’s Core CPI: According to the Canadian CPI report for December 2011, the CPI rose by 2.3% during the past 12 month up to December – this is a lower rate than in November by 0.6 percent points; the core CPI excluding food and energy rose by 1.9% from December 2010 to December 2011. This report could affect the trade on the Canadian dollar.

U.S core CPI: According to the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics in December the core CPI remained flat, but rose over the last 12 months by 2.2%;

Euro to USD Daily Outlook

I speculate the Euro will probably continue to trade with little shifts as the market will still waits for new developments from Europe and its debt crisis (Greece). The upcoming reports that will come out today regarding the U.S. CPI might also affect the direction of the EURO/USD if the CPI will rise, this might bring down a bit the USD.

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