Euro/USD Daily Outlook –February 15

The Euro continued to trade down for the third consecutive day; currently the Euro/USD changed direction and is traded slightly up. Greece will try to win the next rescue package, but the EU and IMF might ask Greece to add additional budget cuts.  

Today, Governor King will give a speech, EU GDP for the final Q of 2011 will come out, and the minutes of the last FOMC will be published.        

Here is a short outlook for the Euro /USD exchange rate including the main news items and events that may affect forex trading for February 15th:

Forex Market February Update:

The Euro to US Dollar decline again by 0.39% on Tuesday to 1.3134; during February, the EUROS/USD rose by 0.39%. The Australian Dollar also depreciated against the USD; the Yen sharply depreciated against the USD. On the other hand the CAD moderately appreciated against the USD.

The chart below shows the development of the Euro to US Dollar during 2012 (UTD).

Chart Euro to us dollar Exchange Rates  15 FebruaryCorrelations among Exchange Rates –February 15th

The chart herein shows the linear correlation (moving correlation) between the Canadian dollar and the Euro/USD (daily percent changes) during the past months (up to February 14th).

Correlations Euro to us dollar and CAD USD  2011-2012 February 15

The chart shows the relation between the two exchange rates has strengthened in the past couple of days even though it is still much weaker than in the past. The current correlation between the two daily percent changes of these currencies is nearly -0.62 for February. This might suggest the influence (if at all) of the Euro/USD on the direction of the USD/CAD has slightly strengthen.

Current Forex Indexes February 15th 

Euro to US Dollar is traded at 1.3169 a 0.27% increase as of 09:43*.

GBP to USD rate is at 1.5686 a 0.04% decrease as of 09:43*.

(* GMT)

Forex and Commodities News for the Day

Euro Area GDP 4Q2011: the Euro Area GDP for Q3 grew by only 0.2% (Q-o-Q). This news might affect the Euro; the current expectations are of another a low growth rate for the fourth quarter (see here recent report);

Governor King speaks: The governor of Bank of England will give a speech; this speech might affect the British Pound trading (see here last statement);

Minutes of the recent FOMC Meeting: Following the last FOMC decision to keep the interest rates low until late 2014. The minutes of the FOMC meeting might bring some perspective behind this decision regarding the next steps of the FOMC;

Euro to USD Daily Outlook

The ongoing developments from Greece will probably continue to have some effect on the Euro until the EU leaders will finally approve the next rescue package.   Finally, the upcoming reports from the U.S. and EU might also slightly affect the direction of the EURO/USD if there will be surprises from these reports. 

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