Euro/USD Forecast for March 17-21

During last week, the US dollar depreciated again against the Euro. This week several reports will be released and may affect the Euro USD for the week of March 17th to March 21st; these include: FOMC meeting and press conference, U.S CPI, German zew economic sentiment, U.S existing home sales, EU economic Summit, U.S housing starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and SNB rate decision.

 (All times GMT):

Monday, March 17th

10:00 – EU CPI: According to the recent report, the CPI slightly remained unchanged at an annual rate of 0.8% during January. The changes in EU’s inflation could affect ECB’s monetary policy;

14:00 – U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases: In the previous report regarding December 2013, the net foreign sales of U.S Treasuries longer-term notes reached a deficit of $45.9 billion;

14:15 –U.S Industrial Production: This report will show the monthly shifts in the U.S industrial production during February; as of January, the production inched down by 0.3%; this report may affect the US dollar;

Tuesday, March 18th

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment: In January, the ZEW indicator for Germany tumbled down to 55.7 points; if Germany’s economic sentiment continues to decline, the Euro could plausibly weaken against other currencies including the US dollar;

13:30 – U.S. Housing Starts: The U.S Census Bureau will release its U.S housing starts monthly update for February 2014; in the past report, housing starts fell by 12% during January to reach over 880k houses;

13:30 – U.S. Building Permits: In the last update, during January, building permits fell by 5% (m-o-m) as the adjusted annual rate of building permits reached 940k (the recent U.S building permits update);

13:30 – U.S Core CPI: Based on the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics, during January, the CPI inched up by 0.1%; the core CPI also edged up by 0.1%; this report could affect the USD and may also affect the FOMC’s monetary policy;

Wednesday, March 19th

18:45 – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks: Chairman Jordan will participate in a panel discussion titled “Against the Moral Hazard: Lessons from the Financial Crisis” at the University of Bern;

19:00 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference: The highly anticipated second FOMC meeting for this year will take place between March 17th and 18th. The FOMC will decide whether it will taper again QE3 and whether it will announce of any changes to its future monetary policy, i.e. the timing of when to raise its cash rate. Since the labor market showed signs of progress in the past month and the inflation remains stable, the FOMC might decide to reduce again its QE3 program by another $10 billion to $55 billion a month of asset purchase program. If the Fed also pushing back the rate hike, this could also have a negative effect on precious metals. This time, the FOMC chair Yellen will hold a press conference and the FOMC will also provide an updated outlook for the progress of the U.S economy;

Thursday, March 20th

09:30 – Libor Rate of Swiss National Bank: The Swiss National Bank will release its Libor rate decision; this decision could affect not only currencies markets but also commodities markets, assuming, the bank changes its Libor rate;

All Day – EU Economic Summit: The EU ministers of finance will meet and talk about the recent economic developments in EU;

13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Report:  This weekly report will pertain to the changes in the initial jobless claims for the week ending on March 14th; in the recent report the jobless claims slipped by 9k to reach 315k; the next weekly report may affect the U.S dollar and consequently commodities and equities markets;

15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This monthly survey projects the growth of the US manufacturing sectors. In the last survey regarding March, the growth rate dropped from +9.4 in January to -6.3 in February. If the index further falls, it may adversely affect not only U.S Dollar but also U.S equity markets and commodities (the recent Philly Fed review);

15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will present the shifts in U.S. existing home sales during February 2014; in the last report regarding January, the number of homes sold dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.62 million houses; if this trend persists, it might adversely affect the U.S dollar;

Friday, March 21st

10:00 – EU Current Account: In the previous report, the EU’s current account balance reached a 21.3 billion Euros – a decrease compared to the preceding month;

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