Weekly Forex Forecast for October 31 – November 4

Here is an outlook of the main news items and reports that could affect the forex markets for the week of October 31st to November 4th that highlights the main items related to U.S., Canada, China, Australia and Europe.   

(all times GMT):

  1. Monday October 31st 11:00 – Euro Area Annual Inflation (September): the inflation in Euro Area grew to 3.0% in September; if the upcoming flash estimate will show an increase in the inflation rate, it may further lower the chances of an ECB interest rate reduction;
  2. Monday October 31st 13:30 – Canada GDP: This report will present the changes in major industrial sectors for August 2011. In the previous report for July, the real gross domestic product inclined by 0.3% in July, following a 0.2% increase in June 2011. This new could affect the CAD forex exchange rate;
  3. Monday October 31st 2:00– China Manufacturing PMI: this index will cover 800 companies in 20 industries in China; according to the HSBC, the Manufacturing PMI in August reached 51.2 which is slightly higher than July; this index indicates the changes in China’s manufacturing sectors growth rate (see here last China’s GDP report);
  4. Monday October 31st 4:30 –Bank of Australia –Rate Statement: the overnight money market interest rate of Australia’s Reserve Bank remained flat at 4.75% since November 2010;
  5. Tuesday November 1st 10:30 – Great Britain GDP Q3 2011: This report will show the quarterly growth rate of the British economy during the third quarter; during the previous quarter the GB economy grew by only 0.2% (Q-2-Q);
  6. Tuesday November 1st 15:00 – U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: In September the PMI rose to 51.6%; this index might affect currency forex trading (see here my review of last report);
  7. Wednesday November 2nd 13.30 – ADP estimate of U.S. Labor report: ADP will provide an estimate in the U.S labor during October;
  8. Wednesday November 2nd 17:30 – FOMC Meeting and Press Conference (Statement): in the recent FOMC meeting the Federal Open Market Committee announced of its plan to purchase $400 billion worth of LT securities. The FOMC may consider additional steps even though there was a fall of USD during October. This meeting will be extended over two days (Tuesday and Wednesday); Bernanke’s speech following the FOMC meeting could affect currency forex trading;
  9. Wednesday November 2nd 1:30 – Australian Retail Trade: The upcoming report will regard September 2011. In the recent report regarding August 2011, the seasonally adjusted retail trade slightly inclined by 0.3% (M-2-M). This news may affect traders of AUD and consequently commodities prices that Australia exports  (see here last report);
  10. Thursday November 3rd All Day (two days) –G20 Meeting: in this meeting the financial ministers of the G20 countries will discuss the current European economic situation and the steps needed to take against the global slowdown.
  11. Thursday November 3rd 13:30 –U.S. Unemployment Claims Report: initial claims fell by 2,000 to 402,000 claims for the week ending on October 22nd; the number of insured unemployment reached 3.645 million, a decrease of 96,000 during the week of October 15th; the upcoming report may affect currency forex trading;
  12. Thursday November 3rd 13:30 – ECB Press Conference: The upcoming ECB rate decision will be the first for the new President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi. Last month ECB kept the interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. The Euro Area CPI grew to 3.0% (annual terms) in September. So the recent bump in the inflation is likely to reduce the chances of a decrease in the interest rates;
  13. Thursday November 3rd 15.00 – U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: This report will present the changes of non-manufacturing sector during October 2011. During September this index slightly slipped to 53.0%; this index might affect currency forex trading (see here last report).
  14. Thursday 3rd of November 1:30 –Bank of Australia – Monetary Policy: this quarterly report will present the effects of the global economy  on the monetary policy of Australia’s central bank; it will also review the economic progress of Australia (see here previous report);
  15. Friday November 4th 12:00 – German Factory orders: this report will show the changes in the Germany factory orders and could indicate the progress of the German Economy and consequently could influence forex and commodities traders;
  16. Friday November 4th 12:00 – Canada’s Employment Report: In the last employment report for September 2011, unemployment sharply declined to 7.1%; the employment grew by 61k. The upcoming report might affect the Canadian dollar (see here previous report);
  17. Friday November 4th 13.30 – U.S. Labor Report: in the recent October report regarding September, the number of non-farm payroll employment inclined by 103k; the U.S unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.1%. This report could affect trading of U.S dollar (see my last review on the U.S labor report).

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