Weekly Forex Forecast for 21-25 November

Here is an outlook of the main news items and reports that could affect the forex markets the week of November 21st to November 25th that highlights the main news items related to the U.S., Europe and Canada.   

(All times GMT):

  1. Monday November 21st 15:00 – U.S. Existing Home Sales: This report will present the development in U.S. existing home sales for October; in the previous September report the number of existing homes sold fell (see here the recent review);
  2. Tuesday November 22nd 13:30 – Core Retails Sales Canada: This report presents the changes in the retails sales in Canada for September. It may affect the USD/CAD exchange rate. In the previous August report, retails sales slightly increased by 0.5% to $37.8 billion; in volume terms the sales inclined during the month by 0.3% (see here the full report);
  3. Tuesday November 22nd 13:30 –US GDP 3Q (revised): This will be the second estimate of the third quarter 2011 real GDP of U.S. In the first estimate of the 3Q2011 the GDP growth rate was 2.5%, compared with 1.3% increase at 2Q2011. This shows a steady increase in the growth rate of the US’s economy. If this upcoming report will show a sharp difference from the first estimate, it could have substantial effect on forex traders (for the final estimate of 3Q GDP).
  4. Tuesday November 22nd 19:00 – Minutes  of the last FOMC Meeting: Following the recent FOMC meeting, in which it was decided to keep the interest rates low and the FOMC revised down its economic outlook on the U.S economy, the minutes might bring some insight regarding the next steps of the FOMC and will there be an additional stimulus plan in the near future (see here FOMC meeting);
  5. Wednesday November 23rd 09:00 – EU Manufacturing PMI: In the last report regarding October 2011, the Euro Area Manufacturing PMI fell again to 47.2. This report will provide an indicator to the economic growth of the Euro zone economy and could influence the Euro/USD exchange rate;
  6. Wednesday November 23rd 13:30 – U.S Core Durable Goods Report: This monthly report will examine the development in U.S. orders of durable goods in the manufacturing sector for October. During September 2011, manufactured durable goods fell by $1.5 billion to $200.3 billion; Non-defense new orders for capital goods also declined by $1.8 billion or 2.3% to $76.0 billion (for the full report);
  7. Thursday November 24th 09:00 – German Business Climate: This survey estimates the changes in the business climate in Germany. In the last October report, the business climate index decreased from 107.4 in September to 106.4 in October; this survey may affect forex traders;
  8. Thursday November 24th 13:30 – GB Revised GDP 3Q: This will be the second projections of the third quarter real GDP of GB. In the first projections the GDP of the 3Q2011 grew by 0.5%; if the second report will show a change in estimate, it could affect the GBP/USD exchange rate;
  9. Thursday November 24th 13:30 – U.S. Jobless Claims: initial claims decreased by 5,000 to 388,000 claims for the week ending on November 12th; the number of insured unemployment fell by 57K to 3.608  million during the week of November 5th; the upcoming report may affect forex trading;

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